Saturday, May 28, 2016

Looking for Opportunity

Economic Trends Opportunity #1 -

http://www.curbed.com/2016/5/26/11787632/driverless-cars-will-shrink-our-roads-and-radically-reshape-urban

The trend of driverless is expanding rapidly. An article that I read a year ago predicted that by 2035, 90% of the cars currently on the road will be replaced by what is essentially a driverless Uber. These cars will charge a flat rate of somewhere between $0.25 and $.50 a mile (depending on location) and economists believe that this trend will be one that changes the face a America. With fewer cars, business owners can now expand on their own property, as enormous amounts of parking lots will need to be converted. Parking garages in prime real estate will also provide opportunities to build in locations that were thought to be lost forever. Any person that is sick of driving their personally owned car on the continuously degrading infrastructure of this nation will benefit. Car insurance, oil changes, yearly maintenance, and many other hassles of owning a car will disappear, least of which is having to share a road with a thoughtlessly aggressive drivers on our roads today. I for one find that around 90% of the anger I experience on a daily basis comes from driving and I cannot wait to never drive again. The opportunity is a little more difficult to see, as it will likely have massive implications for the uncountable American companies associated with the auto industry. If you have stock in manufacturers, insurance companies, or petroleum in general, the opportunity might be to not see your life savings go up in flames. There are too many positives to ignore for this change, with the CO2 generation set to plummet, as well. Impending environmental restrictions will likely see this future become a reality, one that I cannot wait for.

Economic Trends Opportunity #2-

http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/tesla-energy-is-the-companys-line-of-batteries/#:PAUBkyca41rsLA

With the implications of climate change becoming a larger part of our everyday lives, more and more Americans are looking to do what they can to ween themselves off of our dependence on fossil fuels. This approach is highlighted by Telsa Energy, who are at the forefront of this industry with their more-available-than-ever battery technology. With the introduction of the new Powerwall, Tesla founder Elon Musk believes that the issues with his first generation of batteries are in the past. The new model is smaller, more efficient, and less expensive, making them affordable for most homes and businesses, with those located right here in Gainesville, FL, (home of some of the highest utility costs in the nation) amongst those that will immediately benefit from the purchase. A recent policy change that has explored the viability of leasing these units will increase its availability further. It is not only a financial investment, but one in our future, as the ensuing reduction in carbon emissions set to slow the inevitability of rising sea levels. This opportunity is similar to #1, in that the true opportunity is not one on the surface. Musk has released every patent he has attained, hoping to inspire positive change in mankind. This opportunity is more about not being left int he past as the world evolves. The increased availability of these batteries will likely be the deathblow to many corporate power companies that are struggling across the country, so capital invested in those industries might be better placed.

Regulatory Changes Opportunity #1-

http://www.thecannabist.co/2016/01/27/florida-medical-marijuana-november-2016-ballot/47293/

Having been narrowly defeated in 2014, Florida voters will once again have the opportunity to legalize medical cannabis in November. The measure, which fell two years ago by 2%, will be on the ballot to see Florida become the 25th state (including Washington D.C.) to allow cannabis as an option for medical purposes. It is widely expected to pass, with online momentum seeing the legislation receive ten times the necessary signatures. The benefits of medical cannabis have been documented for two decades now, with California being the first state to pass such legislation in 1996. From combating the dreadful effects of chemotherapy, to simple pain management, cannabis offers a natural remedy in the face of harsh statistics surrounding the role of pharmaceuticals in our lives. America is the most medicated nation in the world, with each man, woman, and child averaging 13 prescriptions at any one time. Evidence condemning the toxicity of over-the-counter drugs, that many Americans depend on everyday, is released with frightening frequency. With medical cannabis's legalization, dispensaries will open and local growers will be needed. Securing a permit to open a dispensary should be only slightly more painful than opening a business and farmers looking to grow a crop that does not strip their soil of nitrogen (like cotton, which is grown on 72,422 in Florida) will also be interested in this budding industry. The continued economic boom seen in the completely-legal states of Colorado and Washington has inspired several states to join them, with 16 states voting on the issue this fall. Legalizing medical cannabis is the first step to ending prohibition altogether and those who establish themselves in the medical industry will likely continue to thrive in an open market.

Regulatory Changes Opportunity 2-

http://www.politico.com/agenda/agenda/story/2016/1/obama-regulations-2016

President Obama will look to impose an additional 4,000 regulations in 2016. One of which is to mandate that the FDA forces food companies to indicate the exact amount of sugar added to their products. This comes in the face of studies that indicates the amount of unnatural sugar that Americans consume has played a primary role in not only widely accepted diseases such as diabetes, but in cancer as well. A recent study showed that cancer cells consume 19 times the amount of sugar that a typical, healthy cell consumes, leading physicians across the world to label white table sugar as cancer fuel. The food industry has argued that the additional labeling would only confuses Americans. This is extremely troubling to me, as it perpetuates the idea that companies prey on our ignorance for profit. The Age of Information has seen consumers choose healthier options in the wake of these reports. The opportunity here is that the food and drug industries are moving towards more natural, less processed, and altogether healthier options. Any plan to get consumers fresh, nutritious food is a step in the right direction. Healthy fast food is an industry I personally expect to explode in the near future and will continue to look for opportunities to invest.

3 comments:

  1. John,

    Opportunity 1 is very interesting. I agree with all your points but also I see opportunity for people to short stocks in auto and petroleum companies, people to try to own the providers of these driverless Ubers and for people to continue to develop these driverless Ubers to ensure safety. I can also see another negative such as if these are the only cars on the road would there have to be multiple passengers at a time (which some people may not feel safe)? Also what impact would an all electrical car society have on the environment as usually advances in technology create some doom for some species on the planet which could create new opportunities for plant/animal/wildlife/etc.

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  2. John,

    Your economic trend opportunity #2 raises a great point. Everyone is tired of paying high gas prices and energy prices for everything. I know I am sick of paying high GRU bills. Elon Musk is doing everything in his power to make sure his patents are here to stay! I also agree with you on your last opportunity. I think that healthy fast-food options are going to explode in the near future!!

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  3. hey john! your economic trend opportunity #1 is super intriguing. So much frustration on a daily basis comes from driving so having that eliminated would be awesome! You also raise another good point about transforming parking garages and how that provides so much more opportunities for businesses to expand or sell since that is prime real estate property. Also your regulatory trends opportunity #2 gives me hope that fast food industries are headed toward healthier options.

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